I’ll keep updates at the top of this post; you can expect two or three updates per day. You can see where I’ll be getting my information as it comes in at the Newsdesk section of my website. It’s a work in progress (as is the whole site), but it served me well enough during the Hantavirus cruise for me to feel its sharable. Any and all feedback regarding how it functions is welcome!
Updates June 26th 10:40am: International efforts continue to increase as the Bundibugyo outbreak evolves. One confirmed imported case has been detected in France, prompting contact tracing of those on the plane with said individual, with public health agencies around the world preparing for the possibility of imported cases. Separately, newly released CDC models indicate that under a scenario with poor case isolation and contact tracing, there is a 65% chance of the outbreak growing to over 20,000 cases in the next three months. This is more likely under a scenario with less hemorrhagic cases, which may go undetected in the early stages as they are not presenting as ‘typical’ Ebola cases.
June 22nd 6:32am: The count is up to over 1000 confirmed cases in DRC and 254 deaths. Violence and displacement mean this outbreak is more difficult to track and contain than would be otherwise, as rebel-controlled areas continue to be difficult to reach. The ISIL-linked Allied Democratic Forces in Ituri have isolated villages sending thousands to flee into what then become overcrowded camps.
June 10th 7:07am PST: Updates on case numbers are coming more slowly due to the inherent qualities that come with an epidemic in war-torn regions like DRC. That said, we are now up to over 600 cases and 115 deaths. The US led effort to create a field hospital just for American individuals was met with widespread condemnation.
June 6, 2026 7:38 am EST: New CDC modeling suggests the ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak could grow substantially in the coming months if case isolation and contact tracing remain inadequate. Under some modeled scenarios, more than 20,000 cases could occur over the next three months. CDC researchers emphasized that these are projections based on different response assumptions rather than predictions of what will happen. The analyses also note that the true size of the outbreak may exceed currently available data, particularly in conflict-affected areas where surveillance remains challenging.
6/01/2026 7:00am PST: Yesterday DRC authorities reported 282 confirmed Ebola cases and 220 suspected cases under investigation which differs substantially from earlier reports of more than 900 suspected cases and experts suspecting far more to have been out there. Health authorities note that outbreak data are being continuously reviewed and harmonized as laboratory confirmation proceeds, making direct comparisons with earlier suspected-case totals difficult to make. This could be a sign of clearing the backlog of previously suspected cases.
5/27/2026 7:56am PST: Uganda has closed their border with the DRC to try and contain the ongoing outbreak.
7:02am PST: Multiple US airports will be screening for Ebola on relevant incoming flights from the outbreak region. The US has also deployed public health individuals from the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps to set up a quarantine site in Kenya for exposed Americans. Widespread hunger and malnutrition impacting 10 million Congolese may inflate this due to the syndemic properties of infectious disease x hunger. We are likely well behind the curve still and I expect there are likely double the estimated cases and deaths, as this is spreading through areas afflicted by hunger, warfare, rebel occupation, and issues with supply chains.
5/25/2026 6:50am PST: The counts are up to 900+ cases and over 220 deaths according to the WHO, who also say they are being outpaced by the epidemic. 7 cases have been found in Uganda. Counts are likely underestimates due to being behind the curve.
5/24/2026 6:50am PST: Three Red Cross volunteers have passed from suspected Ebola infections, thought to have been infected back o0n March 27th. There are now more than 200 suspected deaths and over 850 suspected cases. The head of Africa CDC put out a statement saying 10 surrounding countries are most at risk for further spread (Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia).
5/22/2026 10:13am PST: The European CDC is reporting there are now more than 750 suspected cases and 177 deaths (82 confirmed to have been Ebola). The map showing where cases are popping up is suggestive of this being much more widespread than the numbers currently tell us, with numbers likely being underestimates due to being behind the infection curve as well as cases popping up in rebel controlled areas with poor access to resources.
5/21/2026 12:13pm PST: The case identified in the rebel held region is far from the epicenter, suggesting the outbreak may be more widespread than is currently thought. After being denied access to a deceased individual, an Ebola treatment center was torched (burial customs become extremely strictly regulated during these outbreaks.
5/21/2026 6:11am PST: A case has been found in the AFC rebel controlled region of South Kivu in DRC. The United States Department of Homeland Security has announced arrival limitations for flights coming from the central African countries of DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan. They will land at Washington-Dulles Airport in Virginia where “enhanced public health measures are being implemented.” There is still very little chance of this becoming a global health problem.
5/20/2026 5:53am PST: The WHO has increased the suspected case and death counts to over 600 and 139, respectively. They believe there may have been a super-spreader event leading to the current numbers, thought to have been at a funeral or a medical center.
5/19/2026 5:37am PST: Officials are expressing growing concern over the speed and geographic spread of the outbreak, which has now expanded into urban areas including Kampala and Goma. Current estimates suggest over 500 suspected cases (33 confirmed cases) and at least 131 deaths, though WHO officials warn the true outbreak size may be substantially larger due to limited surveillance in conflict-affected regions. The WHO has released $3.9 million in emergency funding to help combat the outbreak, with the State Department in the US providing another $13 million. Further funding to stop the outbreak may come from the $1.8 billion appointed to humanitarian funding, $250 million of which is slated to go to the DRC and Uganda.
The ongoing Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda is a regional emergency with public number still catching up to the real picture in the field. The WHO has declared the outbreak a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” and Africa’s CDC declared a similar public health emergency. Despite both of those declarations, we still are likely well behind the curve in terms of confirmed case counts.
The US CDC’s May 17th update had listed 10 confirmed cases in the DRC, 336 confirmed cases, with 88 deaths and two imported cases confirmed in Uganda. Today’s update from Africa’s CDC had increased the death count to 106 and 395 suspected cases across the affected areas of the DRC like Bunia, Goma, Mongwalu, Butembo, and Nyakunde and Kampala, Uganda. The Associated Press reports that one of the infected is an American doctor and medical missionary in Bunia. The numbers are likely to be higher by morning (I’ll be keeping this post up to date with important new information on the outbreak). None of this is to say this should be treated like a COVID-level threat with the WHO noting it does not yet meet the definition of a pandemic emergency. The threat to the average person outside of the region is low. Heightened risk currently sits with the families, health workers, burial teams, patients, drivers, contact tracers, and whoever else can be pulled into the chain of transmission.
What’s causing the outbreak?
Before getting further into the current outbreak, it is worth remembering how and when Ebola entered the official record in the first place. WHO describes Ebola disease as first appearing in 1976 in two near-simultaneous outbreaks, one of the Sudan virus disease in Nzara, in what is now South Sudan, and the other of Ebola virus disease in Yambuku, in what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Yambuku outbreak, near the Ebola River, is the one that gave the disease its name. CDC’s outbreak history lists the 1976 DRC outbreak at 318 cases and 280 deaths (a fatality rate of 88%). The index case was treated at Yambuku Mission Hospital with an injection for possible malaria, and subsequent transmission followed through contaminated needles and syringes at the hospital and nearby clinics, as well as close personal contact.
This is Bundibugyo ebolavirus, as opposed to the better-known Zaire ebolavirus. Species is important here; I say that because when most people hear about Ebola, they’re likely to think of the West Africa outbreak or the 2018-2020 outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri. Those were Zaire ebolavirus outbreaks, and thankfully our modern response toolkit to combat Zaire ebolavirus now has a vaccine. Bundibugyo is different, most importantly in that there is no vaccine and no treatment beyond supportive care such as fluids, electrolytes, oxygen, constant monitoring, watching for secondary infections, and clinical hygiene. That puts an added strain on the already lean control machinery like isolation of cases, tracing contacts for 21 days, protecting health care workers with adequate PPE, and crucially, handling burials safely.
Why tracing an outbreak early is difficult
In an early epidemic, we often end up with a denominator problem in that counts of cases often lag behind the actual epidemic curve. This happens for a variety of reasons: people get sick before being tested, families bury someone before samples can be collected, healthcare workers get exposed before a disease even has a name, patients move closer to hospitals, contacts move around before tracing is even known to be needed, and any other reason imaginable for why a case may be missed. With Africa CDC already describing hundreds of suspected cases and over 100 deaths into the public phase of the outbreak, it seems that the response is working to reconstruct something that may have been moving around for quite some time, with late April being thought to be a decent starting point with a healthcare worker being identified as an early case. So while the confirmed numbers are useful, they’re almost always going to be underestimates the day they’re released.
How does this compare to 2014?
The 2014 comparison is useful, but it is not perfect. Seven days after announcement is not the same thing as seven days after spillover. One outbreak can burn quietly for weeks before being recognized, while another can be identified faster because the surveillance system is already primed. So the comparison should not be treated as a clean clock-to-clock match. What we can compare is the early public surveillance snapshot: what officials knew, what they were still chasing, and what kinds of warning signs were already visible.
WHO’s first public notice on March 23, 2014, described 49 cases and 29 deaths in Guinea, a 59% case fatality ratio. By March 27, WHO was reporting 103 suspected and confirmed cases, 66 deaths, four laboratory-confirmed cases in Conakry, four health-worker deaths, and suspected cases with deaths in Liberia and Sierra Leone among people who had traveled from Guinea. ECDC’s March 27 update described the outbreak as rapidly evolving and noted that supplies and logistics were still being mobilized.
So while the variant is different, the early shape of the current epidemic is not exactly more reassuring than previous outbreaks as we see high deaths relative to reported cases, health-worker deaths, funeral exposure, city involvement, border risk, and contact tracing trying to catch up to events that have already happened. That along with the fact that the current outbreak is Bundibugyo, with no licensed vaccine or treatment, makes me more concerned for those in the region.
Politics are not irrelevant
In 2014, the outbreak occurred while USAID and the CDC were still at a working capacity with regards to combating infectious diseases like Ebola. Even then, the response was late, messy, and inadequate. This outbreak is happening after DOGE spent most of 2025 cutting into USAID and US international health response capacity. Obviously that didn’t cause the outbreak, but it certainly changed the response environment for the worse. Especially having nerfed our Ebola research capacity. High-containment labs have incredibly harsh safety standards, and with Bundibugyo having no licensed vaccine and no specific therapeutic, shutting down one of the rare labs capable of doing safe work on Ebola is working in the wrong direction to say the least.
Where the outbreak could be going.
I had seen a story on twitter regarding a case in Kinshasa but I haven’t been able to confirm anything other than a person who tested negative. Goma and Kampala likely matter more at the moment. Goma is a large, mobile city on the Rwandan border, and it is currently under the control of the Rwanda-backed paramilitary group M23 movement. AFP-linked reporting says a confirmed case in Goma involved the wife of a man who died of Ebola in Bunia. She traveled to Goma after his death while already infected leading to the closure of some Goma-Gisenyi border crossings after the case was reported.
Uganda has reported two imported confirmed cases among people who traveled from the DRC, with no local transmission identified at the time of WHO’s report. One imported case is a warning. Two imported cases that do not obviously sit in one neat chain make me wonder what the DRC side has not reconstructed yet.
CDC is now trying to put some of its machinery back in motion as their May 18 briefing, confirmed the American case linked to work in the DRC, evacuation of other American and high-risk contacts to a quarantine facility Germany, enhanced screening and traveler monitoring for arrivals from DRC, Uganda, and South Sudan, and entry restrictions for non-U.S. passport holders who had been in those countries during the previous 21 days. The risk to the American public remains low.
What to watch out for
Over the next few days, I’ll be watching whether cases keep appearing in Goma, Butembo, Bunia, or other cities. Isolated introductions are one thing. Multiple urban chains are different. There’s also a need to keep an eye on Uganda for local transmission. Some imported cases are expected when people move across borders for care, work, or family reasons but any local spread in Kampala would change the story for the worse.
I’ll also be watching out for the gap between suspected cases, deaths, and confirmed cases to either widen or start to narrow depending on how much suspected cases outpace confirmatory testing. The count is supposed to move as testing catches up, but a widening gap would be a bad sign. I’ll be watching to see whether international support moves faster than the virus. Early signs are good with the ECDC having activated the EU Health Task Force, the IRC launched an emergency response in eastern DRC, and Africa CDC says it is working with partners to assess medical countermeasures and accelerate the necessary operational research.
The Edge of Epidemiology follows outbreaks, medical evidence, and disease history with the context most news stories leave out. Subscribe for new posts in your inbox. Paid subscriptions help fund the time it takes to read the papers, chase the sources, and keep fast-moving stories like this one updated.
